Read the resolution specification first
Open the market's full rules rather than relying on its short title. Record the named source, location or station, relevant date, observation interval, unit and any rounding convention. Check how missing data, corrections or clarifications are handled. Use the market's stated source to interpret the contract; a convenient weather app is not a substitute.
A daily maximum is different from the temperature at noon. An airport station may differ from a city center. A date in the station's local time may cross two UTC dates. Those differences can invalidate an otherwise plausible forecast-to-market mapping.
A weather-market worksheet
Save this specification alongside each decision. When a new daily market appears, rebuild the mapping. Reusing yesterday's title or token can connect today's forecast to the wrong contract.
- Contract: exact event, market, outcome and written resolution source.
- Observation: station identity, measurement type and local-day boundaries, including daylight-saving changes where relevant.
- Units: Celsius or Fahrenheit; retain precision until the contract's rounding rule is applied.
- Forecast: provider, model run time, horizon and the geographic point it represents.
- Freshness: maximum acceptable age for both forecast and order-book observations.
- Exceptions: missing station data, revised forecasts, rule clarification or a source mismatch must lead to review, not a guessed value.
A boundary example: 20°C is 68°F
Suppose a hypothetical market uses a whole-degree Fahrenheit interval while your forecast provides 20.4°C. Converting yields 68.72°F. Whether that value belongs to a listed bucket depends on the contract's boundaries and rounding rules. Rounding Celsius before conversion can change the assigned bucket. Do not infer the correct rule from the bucket label alone.
A point forecast also does not tell you the probability of every interval. To estimate a distribution you need a defensible model and an understanding of its errors. Agreement between several providers is not independent confirmation if they rely on overlapping inputs. No numerical edge or model accuracy is assumed here.
Define when the system must do nothing
An illustrative monitoring rule could flag a market for manual review only when the station and date match, the forecast is fresh and the relevant bucket changes after a new forecast run. If a source is missing or units are ambiguous, pause. This example is a specification exercise, not an instruction to place a weather trade.
For any later execution workflow, add a price ceiling, size cap, open-order reservation and explicit expiry. Forecast confidence does not replace available liquidity. Even a good weather model can be wrong, and a correct forecast does not imply an attractive or executable market price.
Keep a record that can explain an error
Record the forecast version available at decision time, not a corrected forecast downloaded afterward. Keep the rules version, station mapping, unit conversion, data timestamps and reason for acting or abstaining. Test station mismatch, missing observations and a daylight-saving transition, as well as the ordinary path.
SharkRule provides a user-defined automation framework. Weather is an educational use case here; this page does not announce a live forecast feed, a weather model or a weather-trading integration. Confirm supported inputs and permissions for any actual implementation.
Custody, permissions and eligibility
Non-custodial means funds remain in a user-controlled wallet; it does not remove trading permissions, smart-contract risk or the possibility of loss. SharkRule is independent from Polymarket, with no affiliation or endorsement implied. This is software education, not financial or investment advice. Trading eligibility follows current Polymarket geographic restrictions.
Check current geographic restrictionsFrequently asked questions
Can I use any weather app as the resolution source?
No. Check the source specified in the market rules. A different app may use a different station, time window or processing method.
Does the latest forecast guarantee the outcome?
No. Forecasts are uncertain and can change. The final observation and the contract's resolution rules determine the result.
Should a bot continue if one data source fails?
Only if a fallback policy was explicitly designed and validated for that market. Otherwise abstaining and requesting review is clearer than silently substituting data.